Shimla, Mar 1
The effort of dislodging of the Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu Government from power seems to be continuing, and the Congress B team is reportedly still in touch with intermediaries to resolve the initial setback and succeed with Plan B.
The trail of events unfolded after the crossing over of six Congress votes and three Independents in the Rajya Sabha poll since Feb 27. Three days witnessed so many failures of the Sukhwinder Singh Government, like failed (saffronised) intelligence, careless attitude of government machinery, to sincerely understanding the power matrix and the presence of ample friends and foes within it.
BJP-RSS Plan A was to not only to win Rajya Sabha seats but also to target Congress team B. It is not difficult to read between the lines as the Congress B-team, led by at least 11 MLAs including six dissident and three Independents, were being courted by the BJP’s 25-member legislature, or say by the Modi-Shah duo, to topple the government before the Lok Sabha election, with the RS seat merely the first step of the campaign.
Plan A partly succeeded. However, two members, who supposedly are the kingpins of the coup, could not defect in the RS poll due to perhaps the efforts of Sukhu Government managers. Meanwhile half success in Plan A is also creating hurdles in Plan B, as the group of nine Congress Legislative party members (those planning to defect) are also now divided into two camps. The legislative and law prudence of Speaker Kuldeep Singh Pathaina is worth mentioning due to which Plan A partially failed, or to say Congress somehow sailed the boat from the troubled waters for the moment.
Now the move of BJP is to mend Plan A to further the campaign as the divided Congress B team has to be united to achieve Plan B. On the other hand the State Government seems to be lethargic to undermine the possible threat. According to some sources close to Congress team B, the BJP wants to form the Government before Lok Sabha elections, offering the post of Deputy CM to the kingpin of Congress B team and a key berth in the union ministry after crossing the fence.
However, Plan B seems to be full of hurdles including anti-defection law requiring sufficient numbers which Congress B team may not have. Now the Congress team which wanted to defect from the party does not have sufficient numbers, and to topple the government, it needs more resources and promises. The BJP, which was stated to be in touch with Congress-B team, is now distancing from the six dissident MLAs who lost their membership in the assembly.
Congress Government now has two members more than half marks, and if Plan B of BJP gets successful, one or two members may defect.
Let’s talk about numbers. Currently, after the disqualification of six MLAs, the house is reduced to 62 MLAs, indicating a halfway mark at 31. Congress has 34, and BJP has 25 party plus 3 independent MLAs in their support. In case three more defect from Congress, then both stand at an equal number of 31 each. However, for a legal defection to topple a government, at least 2/3rd members from Congress party may have to shift to BJP, which seems highly infeasible. And if this cannot happen, then even the two to three additions who may defect will have to face the sword of the Anti-defection law and could be disqualified.
The BJP with all legal resources to its disposal perhaps only had motive to topple the only Congress-led State in North India, which seems to have failed so far after the tactful budget clearance managed by Sukhu led Congress government. Now if this Sukhu government continues to perform in the State, it could rather send shockwaves for BJP sympathizers across the Nation while equally improving the emotional index towards Congress party and INDIA alliance countrywide.
