ISRO-backed Earthquake forecasting project begins at IIT Mandi as Himachal’s Seismic risk rises
Shimla, Dec 18,
With Himachal Pradesh officially classified under Seismic Zone-Vi in the latest earthquake hazard map released by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), concerns over the state’s vulnerability to major earthquakes have gained renewed urgency. Against this backdrop, a significant scientific initiative supported by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has been launched at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi to strengthen earthquake risk understanding in the western Himalayas.
The three-year research project aims to develop time-independent forecasting models for earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above, focusing initially on the Mandi region before extending to other Himalayan belts. Rather than predicting exact dates, the study seeks to scientifically identify zones with higher probabilities of strong seismic activity, offering a clearer spatial understanding of earthquake risk.
The project is being carried out at IIT Mandi’s School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, led by Mahesh Reddy as Principal Investigator, with Dr Dericks P. Shukla and Dr Dhanya J. as Co-Principal Investigators. A key strength of the study lies in its integration of ground-based seismic data with space-borne observations, marking a shift towards technology-driven seismic assessment.
Researchers will use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data to measure tectonic plate movements with millimetre-level accuracy, while Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) will track subtle ground deformation such as uplift, subsidence and strain accumulation along fault lines. These slow but persistent geodynamic changes often build up silently before major earthquakes.
Over the 36-month duration, the team will examine geological structures, rock properties, slope stability and historical earthquake records of Mandi and adjoining areas. According to Dr Shukla, the outcome will be a scientifically validated seismic hazard model capable of improving long-term planning and risk assessment in fragile mountain terrain.
The initiative assumes added significance as Himachal Pradesh witnesses aggressive infrastructure expansion — including tunnels, hydropower projects, railway lines and four-lane highways — in geologically sensitive zones. Experts have repeatedly cautioned that development without adequate seismic understanding could amplify disaster risks.
Importantly, the findings from the IIT Mandi study are expected to inform disaster-management policies, infrastructure safety audits and future revisions of earthquake-resistant construction norms at both state and national levels.
Beyond research outcomes, the project will also help build local expertise in seismology, geoinformatics and remote sensing, strengthening Himachal’s long-term institutional capacity to deal with earthquakes — an inevitable reality for a Himalayan state sitting atop some of the world’s most active fault systems.
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