La Niña emerges, All eyes on Himachal’s winter
AI generated image. Used for indicative purpose only
Shimla, Nov 27,
Signs of a developing La Niña are becoming increasingly evident across the equatorial Pacific, prompting interest among meteorologists and the public in how the shifting ocean–atmosphere pattern may shape the coming winter in the western Himalayas. International climate monitoring agencies indicate a clear tilt toward a weak La Niña phase for the November–January season, with forecasts suggesting the pattern may persist through early 2026 before gradually returning to neutral. IMD’s director recently said that a “prevailing La Niña condition is weaker and is expected to remain so in the coming months. While La Niña typically strengthens westerly winds and alters jet stream behaviour, its real relevance for Himachal Pradesh lies in how it can influence the arrival and intensity of western disturbances and consequently determine the snowfall pattern across the state.
In the past, several winters marked by La Niña have produced distinctive snowfall behaviour in Himachal. During the 2010–11 La Niña, for instance, the higher reaches of Lahaul-Spiti and Kinnaur recorded repeated heavy spells, with Rohtang Pass closing earlier than usual as a series of active western disturbances swept across the region. Again in the 2017–18 La Niña winter, the state saw early-season snowfall in November and December, with Kalpa, Keylong and parts of upper Chamba receiving substantial accumulations. Even mid-hill regions felt the impact that year; Shimla witnessed a significant January snowfall, and areas like Narkanda and Kufri remained under a prolonged snow cover following a particularly strong western disturbance. In the 2021–22 La Niña phase, while overall precipitation remained uneven, a couple of sharp disturbances in January brought heavy snow to Manali’s upper slopes, Jalori Pass and the Kinnaur high belt, illustrating how La Niña years often favour intense, event-based snowfall rather than evenly distributed winter precipitation.
Against this historical backdrop, current forecasts show a developing but still weak La Niña, and its influence may become more pronounced later in the winter. For now, early-winter model signals and official guidance from the India Meteorological Department point to a slow start. IMD’s extended range forecasts consistently indicate predominantly dry weather across Himachal Pradesh during the opening one to two weeks of December, with no major western disturbance expected to impact the region immediately. The department’s weekly outlooks suggest cold and stable conditions rather than active precipitation, a pattern echoed by global model ensembles, which display little organised WD activity in early December. While some ensemble members hint at a possible westward trough or disturbance approaching the Himalayas around mid-December, the signal remains low-confidence, making it clear that the immediate effects of La Niña on snowfall are yet to unfold.
Meteorologists emphasise that La Niña’s influence varies widely across elevations. Higher altitudes such as Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur’s upper valleys, Pangi and the high ridges of Kullu tend to respond more directly, often receiving heavier and more frequent snow spells once active western disturbances begin arriving. Mid-hill regions like Shimla, Kufri, Mashobra and Narkanda have shown mixed responses in previous La Niña years. In 2010, for example, Shimla saw only intermittent light snowfall despite strong disturbances, whereas in 2017 and again in parts of the 2021–22 cycle, the town witnessed sharper and more picturesque snowfall episodes, demonstrating how localised the impact can be. At lower elevations—such as Solan, Sirmaur, Mandi, Bilaspur and Una—La Niña typically manifests through colder nights and dry spells rather than snow, as temperatures remain marginal for sustained accumulation.
As December progresses, Himachal’s winter narrative will depend on when the first strong western disturbance forms and how it interacts with the developing La Niña background. If mid-December does bring the season’s first active system, it could set the tone for more robust snowfall events in January, which historically stands out as the most impactful month for western disturbances. For now, the state enters winter under the early influence of a building La Niña, yet with its immediate snowfall prospects resting on the timing and strength of the disturbances still gathering far to the west.
About the Author
The HimachalScape Bureau comprises seasoned journalists from Himachal Pradesh with over 25 years of experience in leading media conglomerates such as The Times of India and United News of India. Known for their in-depth regional insights, the team brings credible, research-driven, and balanced reportage on Himachal’s socio-political and developmental landscape.
