Shimla, June 13
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an extended weather alert for the next four weeks, forecasting that heatwave conditions may persist for the next two weeks. This prolonged heatwave is expected as both monsoon and pre-monsoon anomalies indicate extremely negative trends, with average rainfall deficits ranging from 10 to 20 mm per day during this period. The adverse weather pattern appears to be influenced by El Niño activities, potentially impacting the onset and intensity of the monsoon season.
From June 14 to 20, maximum temperatures in the state are projected to be mainly normal to below normal. However, districts such as Una, Shimla, Sirmaur, and Solan may experience above-normal temperatures. In contrast, Lahaul-Spiti is expected to see appreciably to markedly below-normal temperatures in some isolated areas.
For the same period, minimum temperatures across the state will generally be normal to below normal. Certain parts of Chamba, Kangra, Mandi, Kullu, Shimla, and Lahaul-Spiti are predicted to have appreciably below-normal temperatures, with markedly below-normal conditions in isolated parts of Lahaul-Spiti.
In the second week, from June 21 to 27, the forecast remains similar, with maximum temperatures mainly normal to below normal across the state. Lahaul-Spiti, Kangra, Chamba, Mandi, and Kullu may experience appreciably below-normal temperatures, with some pockets in Lahaul-Spiti markedly below normal. Minimum temperatures will also follow this trend, being mainly normal to below normal, with some isolated parts of Lahaul-Spiti seeing appreciably below-normal temperatures.
Regarding rainfall, the forecast for June 14 to 20 indicates a moderately negative anomaly for the state. Average rainfall is expected to be minimal, with Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, Mandi, and Kullu districts, as well as higher elevations of Shimla and Sirmaur, receiving only 1 to 5 mm. Kangra, Una, Hamirpur, Bilaspur, Solan, and lower areas of Mandi and Kullu are unlikely to see pre-monsoon rain. Before the monsoon’s arrival, the state may experience a rainfall deficit of 10 to 20 mm.
For June 21 to 27, rainfall anomalies remain moderately negative statewide, with isolated parts of Kinnaur and Lahaul-Spiti experiencing normal to mainly negative anomalies. From June 28 to July 4 and July 5 to July 12, rainfall is expected to continue being mainly negative.
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