Data from the 2017 Vidhan Sabha polls indicates a equivalent mix of the two parties (Congress- BJP) in the Shimla Lok sabha constituency contest. The seats under Shimla parliamentary constituency are Arki, Nalagrah, Doon, Solan, Kasauli, Nahan, Renuka ji, Poanta Sahib, Shillai, Pachad,Chopal, Theog- Kumarsain, Kasumpti, Shimla, Shimla Rural, Jubbal Kotkhai and Rohru. As per votes polled data of 2017 the total votes to Congress party in all these 17 assembly segments were around 4.01lac. Whereas the votes polled to BJP were 4.17lac. Even though BJP won no extra seat viz a viz its opponent , but the vote share difference was on their side (approximately 17000 votes (3.99%) more).
Dissecting the data into Vidhan Sabha constituency wise which is divided into three districts of the state. It evidently points, that both parties have an equivalent hold in each district. In Solan district out of 5 Vidhan Sabha seats Congress has three and two are with BJP. Doon and Kasauli assembly constituencies elected BJP and Arki, Nalagarh and Solan chose a Congress incumbent. In Sirmour district BJP has two and likewise Congress has two seats. Nahan and Poanta sahib is a BJP stronghold whereas Shillai and Renuka ji are on the Congress strength. Similar Shimla; here BJP in 2017 won 4 Vidhan Sabha seats and Congress has 3 seats. Rohru, Shimla (Rural) and Kasumpti were won by Congress and Jubbal- Kotkhai, Shimla, Chopal and Pachad are with BJP. Currently out of total 17 Vidhan Sabha seats falling under Shimla constituency, eight are with Congress and eight are with BJP. One seat Theog Kumarsain was won by CPI(M).
Besides that the saffron has a number advantage in the area but Congress supporters feel that their party is still better placed. Justifying the same they state that Theog Kumarsain constituency which voted for the left in Vidhan Sabha would now support Congress. If those votes polled to Rakesh Singha (0.22L) of CPI (M) get added to Congress numbers, the tally rises to 4.23 lacs votes polled against BJP. Second point to ponder is the Shimla city Vidhan Sabha contest. Herein Harish Janartha the Congress party rebel made it to second position in the contest. He lost to Suresh Bhardwaj of BJP by barely 2000 votes. “So in case the rebel is taken back by the party, those 12109 votes polled to him can also fall in their kitty, thus giving party the number strength in this parliamentary constituency,” they assumed.
Whereas on the other hand BJP supporters feel that numbers polled in the Vidhan sabha would not make much difference. Relying on a ‘Modi’ wave, they state, that with BJP state government in place for the next 3 years, their party stands a natural advantage. “Besides the Lok sabha polls are totally focused on the National issues this time, where Congress is far lacking in numbers,” they presume.