El Niño Impact to continue post monsoon season too
Shimla, October 11
After the withdrawal of the monsoon from the state and the Northern West Himalayan region, the impact of El Niño is expected to continue, resulting in dry and warm weather conditions throughout the remaining days of this month. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast for rainfall and temperature during the post-monsoon season of 2023. According to their predictions, including Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, most parts of North West India are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. However, many areas in South Peninsular India, Northeast India, and a few pockets in the northernmost region of the country are expected to have above-normal rainfall. Monthly rainfall across the country as a whole during October 2023 is most likely to be normal.
Himachal Pradesh, which witnessed excess rainfall during the rainy season compared to other parts of the country, is anticipated to receive less rainfall during October to December 2023 in the post-monsoon season and before the winter season. The IMD’s weather bulletin for the long-range forecast suggests that some areas of Northwest India, including Himachal Pradesh, may experience below-normal rainfall. However, the forecast also indicates a probability of normal to above-normal rainfall in many areas of Northwest India. The IMD has stated that El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, and the latest forecast indicates that these conditions are likely to persist in the upcoming season. They predict that the impact of El Niño conditions is likely to diminish by the end of the year.
Also read: Normal to below normal Southwest monsoon predicted for Himachal Pradesh and Northwestern Himalayan states: IMD
The prevailing dry weather may prevent a significant drop in temperatures, even in the hill states. The Met Office has announced that above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are expected in Himachal Pradesh in the next two months. Similarly, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas in Northeast India where normal minimum temperatures are expected.
In the coming three days, a fresh Western Disturbance is expected to make a feeble impact on changing the dry weather conditions. According to the IMD, this disturbance may affect the Western Himalayan Region starting from October 13. It is expected to bring a major spell of snowfall on October 15 and 16 in the higher reaches and rain and thunderstorms downstream of the state. The Met Office in Shimla has predicted light to moderate rain or snowfall in many places in the higher reaches and a few places in the mid and foothills on October 15 and 16. Inclement weather conditions are expected to prevail all over the state from October 14 to 17.
In the past 24 hours, the state remained mainly dry, with only light spells of rain and slight snowfall in one or two places. Baijnath (Kangra) received four millimeters of rain, Keylong one millimeter, and Chamba 0.5 millimeters.
The minimum temperature in Keylong was the coldest at 2.3 degrees Celsius, Kalpa (Kinnaur) recorded 5 degrees, Kufri 10 degrees, Narkanda 7.5 degrees, Dalhousie 14 degrees, Manali 7 degrees, Shimla 12.8 degrees, Jubbarhati 13.5 degrees, Dharamshala 15 degrees, Una 15 degrees, Nahan 17.5 degrees, Solan 10.5 degrees, Kangra 13.9 degrees, Mandi 13 degrees, Bilaspur 17 degrees, and Chamba 13.2 degrees, respectively.
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