Normal to Below Normal Southwest Monsoon Predicted for Himachal Pradesh and Northwestern Himalayan States: IMD


Shimla, Apr 12

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the South Western Monsoon is likely to be normal to below normal in Himachal Pradesh and other Northwestern Himalayan states during the 2023 season, according to a statement released.

The IMD has predicted that the Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The forecast is categorized into five categories, namely deficient, below normal, normal, above normal, and excess, depending on the climatological probability forecast.

The IMD also released previous data on the cumulative rainfall recorded in Himachal Pradesh during the southwest monsoon season from 1971 to 2020, indicating that the normal or annual cumulative rainfall was around 734.4 mm. The cumulative precipitation received during the monsoon season varied across different districts of the state, with Kangra district receiving the highest at 1622 mm and Kinnaur receiving the lowest at 248 mm.

The IMD further stated that La Niña conditions have changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, and other climate model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean, and the latest climate model forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.

The IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon seasonal rainfall in the last week of May. The forecast is significant for farmers and the agriculture sector, as the Southwest Monsoon brings over 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is crucial for the country’s



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