Shimla, June 3
Himachal Pradesh is likely to witness a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting rainfall around eight per cent per cent below the long-term average during the June to September monsoon season.
According to the updated long-range forecast issued by the Meteorological Centre, Shimla, monsoon rainfall over most parts of Himachal Pradesh is expected to remain below normal, receiving less than 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The normal monsoon rainfall for the state is 734.4 mm.
The forecast indicates that while most districts may face a rainfall deficit, some areas of Kinnaur district are likely to receive normal rainfall.
In contrast, parts of Lahaul-Spiti and the northern areas of Chamba district may experience above-normal rainfall during the season.
Meteorologists have warned that below-normal rainfall could affect agriculture, drinking water availability, hydropower generation and overall ecosystem sustainability.
Reduced rainfall might also increase the risk of drought-like conditions and heat stress in several parts of the state.
The weather department has advised authorities and farmers to adopt water conservation measures, improve water resource management and make contingency plans for agriculture to minimize the impact of a weak monsoon.
For June, the first month of the monsoon season, rainfall is expected to remain normal to below normal in many low hill, plain and adjoining mid-hill areas of Himachal Pradesh. However, several higher hill regions may receive above-normal rainfall.
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The IMD has also forecast above-normal minimum temperatures across most parts of the state during June. In addition, more heatwave days than usual are likely in the low hills, plains and mid-hill regions.
Climate experts attribute the weaker monsoon outlook partly to developing El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean, which are generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India.
The southwest monsoon normally contributes nearly 70 per cent of Himachal Pradesh’s annual rainfall and remains crucial for agriculture, horticulture and water resources in the state.(Source: IMD Meteorological Centre Shimla’s Updated Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2026)
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