Surge of Total Positivity Rate (TPR)’ nCoV cases- A cause of concern

Cumulative TPR of five districts in the state figure much higher than National average

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Photo used for indicative purpose only. Source: Internet

Shimla, Nov 20, 2020

On the onset, even as the hill state  cumulative ‘Total positivity rate (TPR) of 6.67percent is better than the national average but data also reflects that a few districts here are witnessing a big surge which if not analyzed in time, could change the cumulative TPR for worse. ‘Total positivity rate’ is the percentage number of people being tested positive for nCoV out of the total tests done.

As reported in another media, (Source: worldometer) it was found that on November 18 Himachal Pradesh was figuring among the top 5 states reporting the highest TPR (Daily basis) in the country. On the day the Total positivity rate for the hill state was recorded 16.85, which was third-highest below Sikkim and Nagaland. https://infogram.com/copy-tests-1h7z2l3wjdzx2ow

Besides, as per data by the Government State recorded 16.72 percent TPR on Thursday. Of the total 4760 tested, 796 were found positive for COVID-19. Cumulative data up to November 18 reflects that five districts out of the total 12 in the hill state are currently recording higher TPR than the national average of about 7 percent.

The districts were Lahaul & Spiti 13.94 percent, Mandi with 11.44 percent, Kullu 11.39 percent, Shimla 9.8 percent, and Solan 8.5 percent. 

In Lahaul & Spiti out of the total 6053 people tested 844 were found positive. Mandi of 43572 tested 4791 tested positive, Kullu 23383 tested positive 2665, Shimla 49642 tested and 4791 found positive for COVID-19. Solan of 49161 tested with 4180 found positive.

The TPR data provides the current level of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona Virus) transmission in the state. Whereas it is evident that the Corona virus spread is precariously active in 5 districts of the state including the Capital. Yet, on the other hand, the lowest impact of Corona Virus spread is being noted in mostly those districts which at the beginning of pandemic had become epicenters.

Kangra with also the highest number of tests done 109960 has reported 4062 nCoV cases i.e 3.69 TPR. Hamirpur has recorded 4.11 with 38851 tests and 1599 positive, followed by Chamba 4.4 with 36966 tested 1628 positive. Thereafter Una 4.68 after testing 39385 and 1847 cases, Kinnaur 5.78 with 11592 tests and 671 positives. Bilaspur 6.3 with 26418 tests 1677 cases and Sirmour 6.8 TPR after 35557 tests and 2452 COVID-19 positive cases.

Statewide out of the total 4.70 lakh, people tested, 31401, had been confirmed infected with COVID-19.

Reportedly, a TPR of above 10 percent indicates that the state is not conducting enough tests or not enough testing is being done. As per data of the number of tests done in Himachal the share of 7 districts with cumulative low TPR is 64%.

Experts term 7 percent TPR very high. They inform that as a rule of thumb, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. Pertinent to mention that the World Health Organization in May this year had recommended that when the percent positive remains below 5% for at least two weeks then perhaps Governments should consider reopening of Lockdowns.

However, here in the state and the country owing to other factors, besides TPR being on the high or not in desirable limit and lockdown has been mostly lifted. Perhaps bearing results of this action, the surge is being witnessed.

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