Hamirpur seat- BJP confident…but could be anybody’s game

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Though after ‘84, Congress, lost its victory spree on Hamirpur seat, (won it only once 1996), but the fact remained that party still did not lose its vote share. The Lok Sabha elections data for Hamirpur parliamentary constituency clearly reveals that the area has been a Bhartiya Janta Party victory field from 1989. Since then BJP has got elected seven times whereas rival Congress two times. But votes to both parties in elections since 1984 clearly displays that besides losing the Congress party never really lost its voter here.  Vote polled data since 1984 to 2014 shows that the average votes polled to Congress in the area were around 2.56lacs. On the other hand BJP the winner in most time got an average 2.86lac votes. The difference of average votes polled since 1984 between the two parties was found to be around 0. 20 lac votes.

Party 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014 Average
INC 2.42 2.05 2.02 2.43 2.41 2.06 3.21 3.08 3.49 2.56lac
BJP 1.17 2.37 2.05 2.27 3.19 3.36 3.13 3.73 4.48 2.86lac

Even vote share difference between the two since 1984 indicates towards a competition. The average vote share difference is 11.20% from 1984 till 2014.  Besides one occasion in 1999 when Suresh Chandel was contesting seat, the BJP never managed more than 15% vote difference. Only Chandel won with a 23.27% vote share difference. It was also the highest vote difference margin for any BJP candidate on this seat in all times.  But the highest vote margin recorded on this seat by any contestant was in 1971, when Narain Chand Prasher won the seat with a thumping 78.07% votes.

Perhaps data can provide an overview of the competition in fray. But the real key lays in the hands of the voters. But one thing is pertinent that this seat witnesses stiff competition to choose its incumbent.

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